Masters festivities are in full swing and I hope you are drinking in the Azaleas as we speak. The course may be a few trees lighter this year, but Augusta National has had time to recover from historic hurricane damages as well as we expected they would. Conditions are perfect for a historic week.
The mother of all disappointment
This time last year, I had already dubbed it the season of “Scottie and the Longshots.” I know it sounds more like an indie band than a statement about professional golf, but victories from Chris Kirk, Peter Malnati, and the amateur Nick Dunlap only made Scheffler's early dominance stand alone all the more.
By comparison, this year’s Masters is a who’s who of heavy hitting favorites starting with the obvious: Rory and Scottie.
The mother of all disappointment
This time last year, I had already dubbed it the season of “Scottie and the Longshots.” I know it sounds more like an indie band than a statement about professional golf, but victories from Chris Kirk, Peter Malnati, and the amateur Nick Dunlap only made Scheffler's early dominance stand alone all the more.
By comparison, this year’s Masters is a who’s who of heavy hitting favorites starting with the obvious: Rory and Scottie.
McIlroy
Expectations have never been higher for Rory following two stalwart wins at Pebble and Sawgrass. In his 17th Masters appearance, it’s hard to say if those expectations bode well or are an omen of further heartache; it’s starting to feel ‘do or die’ for his hopes of joining a truly elite club.
Expectations have never been higher for Rory following two stalwart wins at Pebble and Sawgrass. In his 17th Masters appearance, it’s hard to say if those expectations bode well or are an omen of further heartache; it’s starting to feel ‘do or die’ for his hopes of joining a truly elite club.
Scheffler
Winless, but trending Scottie still beats Rory on the odds market. Back-to-back winners include only Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90), and Tiger Woods (2001-02). It may be the recency bias speaking to me, but Scotties name wouldn't feel out of place alongside them.
Winless, but trending Scottie still beats Rory on the odds market. Back-to-back winners include only Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90), and Tiger Woods (2001-02). It may be the recency bias speaking to me, but Scotties name wouldn't feel out of place alongside them.
However, other reputable picks abound as Morikawa, Ludvig, Rahm, Hovland, and other household names have avoided a spring slump and appear ready to show up in the majors this year.
An actual shortlist?
Although winning a major championship is never easy, the Masters has a surprising reputation of being one of the easier majors TO win (Rory’s record non-withstanding). One reason that may be the case is the smaller field size; it's about 95 this year, but hardly “95 strong.”
An actual shortlist?
Although winning a major championship is never easy, the Masters has a surprising reputation of being one of the easier majors TO win (Rory’s record non-withstanding). One reason that may be the case is the smaller field size; it's about 95 this year, but hardly “95 strong.”
I’d remove from contention a few permanently exempt green jacket winners like Bernhard Langer and Fred Couples
Also rule out invitees that came from one off victories in the last 51 weeks such as Brian Campbell and Patton Kizzire
Then consider Augusta National green complexes rewards prior knowledge arguably more than any other course and recall that no amateur has ever won; eliminate them and other first timers.
After all this the ‘effective’ field size dwarfs even limited signature events. The real kicker is the strikingly similar stat profiles of previous Masters victors: elite strokes gained numbers, solid putting profiles, and recent wins to boot. In my estimations there are fewer than 10 players whose wins this week wouldn’t buck two decades of performance trends linking past champions.
Just a bit of an addendum, in hindsight.
